Palm Beach County leads as the region's strongest condo market, Little Havana introduces its first large-scale for-sale condo project, and Brickell faces its deepest price correction in years. Real, verified data from the November 2025 – April 2026 buying season.
Overview: The 2025–2026 Winter Buying Season
South Florida's winter buying season — November 2025 through April 2026 — recorded 12,700 condo sales across the tri-county region of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach, a 6.2% increase over the prior year, according to CVRRealty.com. It marks the first time sales have risen since the 2021–22 winter season, a meaningful turning point for a market that spent four consecutive years contracting.
But the recovery was anything but uniform. Data reveals a deeply divided market: while Palm Beach County broke records, Brickell entered severe correction territory, and Fisher Island struggled to move inventory at any pace.
The Winners
🏆 Market Winner
Palm Beach County recorded 3,843 condo transactions — an 11.9% increase over the 3,435 deals from the prior year. The county's Condo Cliff Index™ surged 71.48%, finishing at 13.29 points against a South Florida norm of 9.51 — making it the strongest condo market in the entire tri-county region by a wide margin.
It was also the county's first sales increase in five years. Prices dipped 3.4% during the period — but paired with rising volume, this signals pent-up buyer demand activating on price corrections, a classic pattern of a market finding its floor.
According to MIAMI Realtors, Palm Beach County's residential dollar volume grew 32.89% year-over-year in October 2025, with $1M+ sales surging 23.38%. Continued wealth migration from New York and California remains the structural engine driving the county's long-term demand.
2. Little Havana — A New Chapter for an Unlikely Condo Market
Source: Bisnow / CVRRealty — April–May 2026
🏆 Emerging Submarket
Little Havana has never been a traditional condo market — it has historically been a neighborhood of single-family homes and rental multifamily. That changed in 2026 when The Astor Cos. pivoted mid-construction to convert its rental apartment project into Havana Enclave, 179 for-sale condos priced from $300K to $700K at 315 NW 27th Ave.
Astor CEO Henry Torres explained the pivot plainly: multifamily oversupply in Miami-Dade — with buildings running at 85% occupancy instead of the historical 93–95% — made the rental model unviable. The demand from local buyers with no affordable purchase options was the opportunity.
"People have nothing keeping them here. If you own something, you think twice about leaving." — Henry Torres, CEO of The Astor Cos., Bisnow April 2026
According to Homes.com, the existing condo inventory in Little Havana ranges from $179K to $370K with an average of 110 days on market — still slow, but Havana Enclave's scale could meaningfully shift that benchmark upon delivery later in 2026.
The Losers
Brickell — South Florida's Most Popular Condo Market Enters Correction
Source: CVRRealty.com / MiamiCondo.Club — Feb. 2026
⚠️ Market Under Pressure
Brickell entered what analysts classify as a Severe Buyers Market — carrying 19.3 months of supply against a balanced-market benchmark of 6 months. Transactions fell 4% year-over-year, but the real story is price: the average unit price dropped more than 12%, from $947,335 to $832,050. Price per square foot fell 9%, from $723 to $661.
With 101 projects and nearly 29,450 units across the submarket, Brickell is absorbing a supply overhang with no quick fix in sight. In Q1 2026, active listings jumped from 320 to 531 units in just weeks. For sellers, the data is unambiguous: only those willing to discount are closing. For well-capitalized buyers, this is the widest negotiating window since 2019.
Fisher Island — Ultra-Luxury Prices Hold, But Velocity Doesn't
Source: CondoBlackBook Q3 2025 / Redfin / MillionLuxury.com
⚠️ Slowing Velocity
Fisher Island remains Miami's most expensive zip code — a Q3 2025 median of $11.2M and $2,708 per square foot, up 28% year-over-year in price. But velocity tells a different story: Redfin data shows an average of 167 days on market, trending higher year-over-year. As one market analyst put it, a market can be expensive and slow at the same time.
The $2M+ segment in Greater Downtown recorded 97 closings in Q3 2025 versus 116 in Q3 2024 — a 17% year-over-year decline. Scarcity anchors Fisher Island's price floor, but the qualified buyer pool is small and decision timelines are long. The island's thesis is and always has been exclusivity — not liquidity.
📊 Key Data Point for Buyers
Roughly 40–43% of Miami luxury sales are all-cash. On Fisher Island, that share is even higher. Financed buyers face a structural disadvantage in this segment and must plan accordingly.
